NEW DELHI: India is most likely to receive ‘above normal’ southwest monsoon over the country as a whole this year, said the IMD while making its first forecast for the upcoming rainy season (June-Sept) on Tuesday.
A forecast of good seasonal rainfall is significant for farming operations, as it directly impacts the increase in acreage of Kharif (summer-sown) crops and leads to better farm output. This, in turn, boosts the rural economy and ultimately contributes to the overall economy of the country, where the majority of the workforce depends on agriculture and allied activities.
The forecast suggests that there is a strong probability (59%) that the southwest (summer) monsoon seasonal rainfall will likely be in the ‘above normal’ category this year.
Though northeast India, Tamil Nadu and a few parts of Bihar are likely to receive ‘below normal’ rainfall, most other parts of the country, including the ‘monsoon core zone’ where farmers depend on seasonal rainfall for farming operations, may get ‘above normal’ rainfall.
“Quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 105% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%,” said M Ravichandran, secretary, ministry of earth sciences, while releasing the forecast.
The LPA (1971-2020) of the seasonal (June-Sept) rainfall over the country as a whole is 87 cm. It means the country may overall get more than 91 cm of rainfall during the rainy season.
Good rainfall is not only useful for farming operations in terms of providing enough water for irrigation but also for hydro-power generation and increasing storage of reservoirs for drinking water needs. Water storage and groundwater recharge during the good monsoon year are beneficial for meeting irrigation needs of Rabi (winter sown) crops as well.
If the IMD’s forecast comes true, this will be the second consecutive year of ‘above normal’ monsoon rainfall. Records show that the Met department’s forecast comes quite close to the actual rainfall and the margin of error has been reduced substantially in the past four years.
“Average absolute error during the last four years (2021-24) was 2.27% of LPA compared to 7.5% of LPA during the previous four years (2017-20),” said IMD chief, M Mohapatra.
Last year, IMD predicted monsoon rainfall to the extent of 106% of the LPA, whereas the actual one figured at 108%. Similarly, the actual rainfall was 94% of the LPA in 2023 against the forecast of 96%.
Two — El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) — of the three global factors that influence monsoon rainfall over India are currently neutral and likely to continue like that during the monsoon season whereas one (snow cover) will have a positive impact on rainfall this year.
The winter and spring snow cover extent over northern Hemisphere as well as Eurasia is below normal and it is inversely proportional to the summer monsoon. It means this condition will favour the seasonal rainfall over India.
