India’s natural gas consumption is expected to climb by nearly 60 per cent by 2030, pushed by growing demand in the city gas distribution (CGD) sector and increased use across transport, cooking, and industry.
A new study by the petroleum and natural gas regulatory board (PNGRB) revealed that daily gas consumption are likely to rise from 188 million standard cubic metres per day (mmscmd) in 2023–24 to 297 mmscmd by 2030 under the “Good-to-Go” scenario.
This scenario assumed moderate economic growth and policy progress in line with current trends and government commitments. Looking further ahead, demand is projected to reach 496 mmscmd by 2040 under the same scenario.
However, under a more optimistic “Good-to-Best” outlook, factoring in favourable policies, faster development, and greater investments, consumption could jump to 365 mmscmd by 2030 and hit 630 mmscmd by 2040.
The CGD sector, which includeds supplying compressed natural gas (CNG) to vehicles and piped natural gas to homes and businesses, is set to be the biggest driver of demand. It is expected to account for 50 mmscmd of the 110 mmscmd incremental demand by 2030 and 129 mmscmd of the 198 mmscmd increase between 2030 and 2040 in the moderate growth scenario.
“The CGD sector is expected to be the primary growth driver, with consumption projected to grow 2.5 to 3.5 times by 2030 and 6 to 7 times,” the study noted.
India is targeting a rise in the share of natural gas in its energy mix to 15 per cent by 2030, up from the current 6–6.5 per cent, as part of its efforts to shift towards cleaner energy and meet net-zero emission goals by 2070.
So far, the PNGRB has awarded city gas licences covering 307 geographical areas (GAs), extending gas infrastructure to most parts of the country.
Refineries and the petrochemical sector are also expected to see a rise in gas usage, helped by a growing focus on petrochemical integration. This sector is projected to account for an additional 21 mmscmd of gas demand by 2030, and another 10 mmscmd by 2040.
While growth in power generation and fertiliser usage is expected to be moderate, given existing high consumption levels, the transition towards cleaner energy is expected to keep gas relevant in both sectors.
India currently imports around half of its gas needs, a reliance that is set to increase as demand outpaces domestic production. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are projected to more than double by 2030.
The study highlights the potential of LNG in reducing diesel usage in long-haul transport, noting, “LNG as a long-haul transportation fuel could be a game changer, with the potential to play a pivotal role in replacing diesel. LNG trucking is projected to gain momentum post 2030, with the potential to emulate China’s success in reducing diesel dependency,” PTI quoted.
With global LNG supply expected to increase, the report suggests this could present India with an opportunity for long-term supply deals at more competitive prices.
However, the PNGRB warned that several risks remain. “Achieving India’s projected natural gas targets for 2030 and 2040 will require a continued commitment from entities towards infrastructure expansion, favourable LNG pricing, and conducive policies,” the study said. “However, geopolitics, policy uncertainty, and volatility in gas prices cannot be ignored.”
From 2015-16 to 2023-24, India’s natural gas consumption rose by 45 per cent, from 131 mmscmd to 188 mmscmd. While power sector demand contracted slightly due to sensitivity to price changes, CGD usage more than doubled, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12 per cent. The fertiliser sector saw 3.4% annual growth, while the refinery sector posted 1.8 per cent.
